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EU Referendum Watch: Pound extends recovery as Obama helps slash Brexit odds

Concerns over the economic impact of the possibility of Britain leaving the EU have been a key theme weighing on the pound this year. Last week however there was relief as the “remain” camp edged higher in some polls. Meanwhile bets that Britain will remain in the EU surged higher last week and the odds of Brexit were slashed. It looks like US President Barack Obama’s intervention in the debate has had a big impact. As the odds of Brexit have been slashed so too have short positions in the pound, for there was nothing else constructive last week to support the currency as the latest employment and retail sales figures both disappointed expectations. This week’s key data for the UK is the first quarter GDP reading on Wednesday morning. Economic growth is expected to have eased to 0.4% from 0.6% in Q4 of last year.

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