JPY

Both USD/JPY and EUR/JPY have sold off over the past week and with the BoJ policy review expected in a couple of weeks, Yen-strength scenarios seem to be gaining steam.

Yen weakness has hung around and USD/JPY and GBP/JPY both retain bullish appeal. But for those looking for Yen-strength, perhaps in anticipation of next month’s policy review from the BoJ, EUR/JPY could hold greater attraction.

Yen-weakness has remained through Japanese general elections and both EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY have put in clean breakout moves from ascending triangle formations.

The 150 level had held as resistance in USD/JPY until this week’s US open, at which point another DXY-fueled breakout appeared. The next major level up is the same that held multi-year highs in the pair in Q4 of each of the past two years.

For FX traders the USD/JPY backdrop has been full of intrigue for the past couple years, and that story isn’t yet over as the pair nears the spot that’s been the scene of some major drama in the pair after the build of the carry.

USDJPY, Silver Forecast: As the U.S. dollar strengthens and uncertainty persists around monetary policies, elections, and geopolitical tensions, both USDJPY and Silver are proceeding through the third week of October on a positive note.

The USD extended its bullish trend this week but perhaps the larger focal point was Gold, defending 2600 and continuing the rally. For next week, USD/JPY resistance and EUR/USD pullbacks are in focus.

USD/JPY has shown a strong trend after the false breakdown at 140.00 last month. And price action has shaped the narrative, with many proclaiming the return of the carry trade even as the Fed is expected to cut heavily next year.

USD/JPY bears hit back last week with a move of more than 500 pips; but they shied away less than eight pips away from a re-test of the local low.

USD/JPY remains on the move and the theme of bigger picture carry unwind continues to swing some weight. But that doesn’t mean that trends are going to show in a one-sided manner.

AUD/JPY and EUR/JPY are sandwiched between range highs and uptrend support, meaning traders should be on alert for potential bearish and bullish breakout this week with big event risk in the United States and Europe approaching fast.

A historic day for Japanese markets with the Bank of Japan (BOJ) hiking interest rates for the first time since 2007, doing away with negative interest rates in the process. It’s now over to the Fed to drive the price action over the remainder of the week.

Japan's core CPI didn't fall below the BOJ's 2% target, although it did match it. Which has seen AUD/JPY and USD/JPY retrace further from their highs in light of yen strength.

Is the carry trade coming back? USD/JPY, EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY have all started 2024 with bullish moves despite the expectation for rate cuts starting in 2024.

Open interest has fallen notably on USD/JPY since its failed ‘bid’ for spot prices to break and hold above 150. And that further suggests a glass ceiling for prices. Japanese yen futures also saw grow longs increase by 19.6%, although traders remained heavily net-short.

It’s been a big week for global markets and it’s not over yet, with the Bank of Japan rate decision scheduled for later today.

With EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY testing critical support, price action over the next 30 hours will go a long way toward determining if the year-to-date trends extend or end from here...