Fed Funds

Overall, the BEA estimated that the US economy grew at a 3.2% annualized rate in Q1, well above expectations of 2.2% growth. While President Trump will no doubt extol the headline growth, the details are less impressive under the hood.

See a summary of the top themes and trends from today's US session!

As we noted in yesterday’s FOMC Preview report, the US central bank was never going to make any immediate changes to policy, leaving traders to read Powell and Company’s tea leaves for implications about future tweaks. As it turns out, the tea leaves were clear: The Fed has undergone a major dovish shift.

Spoiler alert: The Federal Reserve won’t be making any immediate changes to monetary policy at the conclusion to this week’s two-day meeting. Nonetheless, it would be a mistake for traders to ignore the central bank’s economic projections and comments.

With seemingly every member of the Federal Reserve emphasizing that the central bank would be “patient” following its December interest rate hike, it came as no surprise that the Fed left interest rates unchanged today. And, despite the speculation that Chairman Powell and Company could revisit their balance sheet rundown strategy, the central bank was quiet on that front as well.

For seemingly the first time in months, today’s US jobs report had at least a little potential to influence the imminent Federal Reserve interest rate decision.

If you’re one of the many readers who did, you’re excused for forgetting about today’s Federal Reserve meeting. After all, the high political drama in Washington and London continues to draw plenty of headlines, it’s the first time we’ve seen an FOMC meeting conclude on a Thursday in three years, and the central bank was never going to make any changes to monetary policy at its final ever meeting without a press conference anyway.

It’s been another rough day for global stock investors (see my colleague Fawad Razaqzada’s note “Global stocks extend decline as Chinese markets resume slide” for more), so it’s not surprising that the safe haven Japanese yen is once again at the top of the FX relative performance charts. What is interesting is the price action in the US dollar, which is the worst-performing major currency on the day.

As we noted in yesterday’s FOMC Preview report, another rate hike this month was a “done deal” for the Federal Reserve, and Powell and Company delivered the expected 25bps increase as expected. The more interesting aspects of today’s release came from the central bank’s accompanying monetary policy statement and the quarterly Summary of Economic Projections.

Political news has dominated today’s headlines on both sides of the Atlantic.

In a world where financial media sensationalizes every US jobs report as “The Most Important Jobs Report Ever,” even the most bombastic personalities had to admit today’s release was relatively insignificant, at least as far as Non-Farm Payroll reports go.

In yesterday’s article, we highlighted the crosswinds impacting today’s speech by Fed Chairman Powell at the Jackson Hole Symposium, eventually concluding that, “Powell [should] maintain the same optimistic perspective he espoused at his Congressional testimony last month”

As we noted yesterday ahead of today’s NFP release, “[There have been] no signs that a pickup in price pressures is imminent, [and therefore] the Federal Reserve is content to stick with its gradual, every-other-meeting rate hike schedule…”. Today’s US jobs report will do little to blow the Fed off course.

As anyone who was paying a modicum of attention could easily tell you, the Federal Reserve was never going to make any changes to monetary policy at today’s meeting. Instead, traders were tuning in to see any changes to the central bank’s statement and extrapolate what that may mean for interest rates moving forward.

With concerns about the nascent global trade war escalating and the Treasury yield curve inverting, Federal Reserve Governor Jerome Powell had a clear opportunity to tap the brakes on the central bank’s hawkish lean in today’s semi-annual testimony to the Senate Banking Committee...

As a reminder for traders who are still a bit groggy after celebrating America’s independence yesterday, the Federal Reserve opted to raise its benchmark interest rate by 25bps to the 1.75-2.00% at its meeting three weeks ago...

USD/CHF broke down sharply below a rising trend channel and returned to parity (1.0000) on Wednesday. This occurred after the US Federal Reserve raised interest rates by a quarter point to 0.75-1.00% but issued an unexpectedly dovish outlook, which led to a steep plunge for the US dollar.

At first glance, Wednesday’s release of minutes from July’s FOMC meeting appeared slightly hawkish and relatively more optimistic about the prospects of a Fed rate hike this year. The minutes stated that some Fed members “anticipated that economic conditions would soon warrant taking another step in removing policy accommodation.” This revelation gave some inkling that the Fed may at least be more divided when it comes to members’ opinions on near-term rate hikes, and perhaps not as dovish-leaning as it has been portrayed to be in the past few months. Also on the hawkish side was the assertion that “near-term risks to the economic outlook have diminished.”