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USD/CAD rallying on oil weakness, but 1.40 barrier still intact

Traders are abuzz this morning with the “news” that Saudi Arabia, Russia, Qatar, and Venezuela have agreed to freeze oil output at the January’s levels, ostensibly in an effort to support oil prices. Speaking bluntly, this agreement (which is still conditional, as it depends on other countries supporting the move) is hardly a game-changer from a supply and demand perspective, as those countries were already producing at their maximum levels with no immediate plans to increase production anyway. As one analyst put it, it’s like promising not to drive your Ford Focus above 220km/hr; you couldn’t do it even if you wanted to.

GBP/USD: Merely an oversold bounce?

Things are looking decidedly better for risk assets today, and not just in a “Thank Goodness It’s Friday” kind of way. Starting with the world’s most important market of late, oil has built on yesterday’s gains and assuming the current gains hold, WTI is on track for back-to-back daily gains for the first time since before Christmas. As my colleague Fawad Razaqzada notes below, talk of a long-term bottom in oil prices is premature at this stage, but traders will take anything they can get after the relentless collapse to start the year.

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