APAC session

Today's growth figures are unlikely to force the RBA into any easing action, but it has been enough to weigh on the Australian dollar and ASX 200. And this could allow EUR/AUD to continue higher after a 4-day retracement.

Having fallen over 5% from the November high already, the two days of indecision around support alongside a bullish divergence suggest USD/JPY could be vulnerable to some bullish mean reversion.

Risk sentiment and rate differentials are dictating directional risks for USD/NOK and NOK/JPY. With weakening ties to US rates and oil, and carry trade flows dominating NOK/JPY, we look at setups as we head toward year-end.

While it is well documented that the USD tends to suffer in December, the dynamics of Trump at the helm alongside another important FOMC meeting could give seasonality a run for its money. But regardless of which way the dollar travels this month, there is a clear intra-month pattern that is worth factoring in to the equation.

I thought we might make it a bit closer to 2025 before the selloff an anticipated selloff on AUD/JPY unfolded. But we're reminded that Trump can make or break sentiment on a whim with his eye now on BRICS countries, which saw AUD/USD fall alongside the FX barometer of risk on Monday.

AUD/USD has done a poor job of tracking its seasonality overall this year so far. And given it’s taking its directional cue from China while any pullback on the USD may be limited, I'm not hanging my hat on a particularly strong December for AUD/USD.

A bullish breakout in US bonds has sent USD/JPY tumbling below 150, with payrolls now poised to decide whether the yen’s surge gains momentum or fizzles out. Could this be the pivotal moment for bond markets and the Fed's rate path?

USD/JPY is tumbling, breaking through its 200-day moving average after Tokyo’s inflation data shocked to the upside. With US Treasury yields losing steam and thin markets amplifying moves, traders are eyeing a deeper downside flush. Could the yen’s resurgence have more room to run?

The RBNZ took the safe option in delivering a 50bps cut, but hawkish signals have traders buzzing. Can NZD/USD sustain its breakout momentum, or will the US dollar reclaim control?

USD/JPY bulls are on the back foot as US bond yields retreat, triggering a key technical break. With Scott Bessent’s bold fiscal plan easing fears and Fed rate cut bets fading, the pair now skews firmly to the downside.

The consensus is 50bp, market pricing leans towards 75bp. Whatever the RBNZ decide to do today, it comes down to whether they will signal further cuts, as to whether NZD/USD continues to depreciate or bounce on a "sell the rumour, buy the fact" reaction.

Trump’s tariff threats send shockwaves through markets, driving the USD higher as trade-reliant currencies plunge. USD/CAD breaks to pandemic highs, while AUD and NZD reel from fears of escalating protectionism.

It's not every day you see gold plunge alongside yields. But that is what Monday served on reports of a potential ceasefire in Gaza and Trump's picking a relatively 'safe pair of hands' for the US Treasury Secretary role. With a prominent swing high on gold, I suspect it could be headed much lower from here.

Scott Bessent’s treasury secretary nomination is already impacting markets, sending bond yields lower and sparking a sharp rebound in EUR/USD. But with yield spreads still heavily in favour of the US, the durability of the move faces questions.

AUD/USD managed to recoup some of its post-US-election losses last week. And given it held up against the might USD strength while futures data shows volumes rising for the first week in seven, I suspect an important swing low has been seen.

Scott Bessent’s nomination as US treasury secretary has jolted markets in Asia, sending bond yields lower and stirring fresh volatility in USD/CHF. With Swiss policymakers hinting at bold moves and rate differentials still in the driver’s seat, is the pair’s uptrend primed to extend, or is a reversal brewing?

USD/JPY's rally faces a critical test as diminishing Fed rate bets threaten to stall the relentless rise in US bond yields. With key data and FOMC minutes on tap, could this be the week the bulls lose their grip?