Oil Price Forecast: WTI Surges into 2025 as Bulls Go for the Break

Crude Oil Technical Forecast: WTI Weekly, Daily & Intraday Trade Levels

Oil prices breakout of multi-week range- threatens breakout of six-month downtrend
WTI initial resistance in view- bulls in control while above 2024 yearly open
Resistance 73.87/91, 75.55/60, 77.15-78 (key)- Support 71.90-72.45, 71.33 (key), ~70

Crude oil prices broke to multi-month highs this week with WTI threatening a breakout of the July downtrend into the yearly open. Battle lines drawn on the weekly, daily, and 240min WTI technical charts.

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Oil Price Chart – WTI Weekly

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; WTI on TradingView

Technical Outlook: In my last Oil Price Forecast, we noted that WTI had turned from resistance open and that, “rallies should be limited to the yearly open IF price is heading for a break lower with a close below 65.62 needed to fuel the next major leg of the decline.” WTI held a well-defined range just below the 2024 yearly open at 71.33 until the last day of the year before finally breaking out. The rally has extended more than 10% off the December low and the focus is on the weekly close with respect to 71.33.

Oil Price Chart – WTI Daily

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; WTI on TradingView

A look at the oil daily chart shows WTI threatening a breakout of the descending pitchfork we have been tracking since July. The advance faltered just ahead of initial resistance today at the October high-day close (HDC) / 61.8% retracement of the October decline at 73.87/91- looking for a larger reaction there IF reached with a breach / close above needed to validate the breakout.

Oil Price Chart – WTI 240min

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; WTI on TradingView

A closer look at oil price action shows WTI trading within the confines of a proposed ascending pitchfork extending off the December lows with the 75% parallel further highlighting near-term resistance at 73.87/91. Initial support rests at 71.90-72.45- a region defined by the 2025 yearly open, the August low-day close (LDC), and the June swing low. Ultimately, losses would need to be limited to 71.33 for the breakout scenario to remain viable. Broader bullish invalidation rest with the lower parallel, currently near the 70-handle.

A topside breach / close above 73.91 is needed to mark uptrend resumption with subsequent resistance objectives eyed at the 52-week moving average / 1.618% extension of the December rally near 75.55/60- note that the upper parallel converges on this zone over the next few days and further highlights the technical significance of this threshold. Key resistance remains unchanged at 77.15-78.02- look for a larger reaction there IF reached.

Bottom line: Oil is threatening a breakout of a six-month downtrend and keeps the focus higher while within this multi-week pitchfork. From a trading standpoint, losses should be limited to 71.33 IF price is heading higher on this stretch with a close above 73.91 needed to fuel the next major leg of the advance. Watch the weekly close here for guidance.

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--- Written by Michael Boutros, Sr Technical Strategist with FOREX.com

Follow Michael on X @MBForex

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