Gold Short-term Outlook: XAU/USD Poised for Breakout
Gold Technical Outlook: XAU/USD Short-term Trade Levels
- Gold prices coil into multi-month consolidation- approaching resistance
- XAU/USD carving monthly opening-range just above 2025 yearly open- NFPs on tap
- Resistance 2671/80, 2715 (key), 2744- Support 2624, 2594-2603 (key), 2565
Gold prices may be poised for a breakout in the days ahead as XAU/USD continues to coil within the December range. Battle lines drawn on the short-term technical charts heading into the close of the week with U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls on tap.
Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this gold technical setup and more. Join live on Monday’s at 8:30am EST.Gold Price Chart – XAU/USD Daily
Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; XAU/USD on TradingView
Technical Outlook: In my last Gold Short-term Price Outlook we noted that a rebound in XAU/USD was approaching resistance and that, “losses should be limited to 2594 IF price is heading for a breakout with a close above 2693 needed to suggest a low is in place.” Price briefly registered an intraday high at 2726 two-days later before plunging more than 5.2%.
A rebound off slope support into the close of December has now extended more than 3.1% off the lows with gold now approaching technical resistance near 2671/80- a region defined by the 61.8% retracement of the December range and the December high-day reversal close (HDC). Looking for a larger reaction there IF reached with a breach / close above the October trendline (red) needed to validate a breakout of a multi-month consolidation.
Gold Price Chart – XAU/USD 240min
Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; XAU/USD on TradingView
Notes: A closer look at gold price action shows XAU/USD setting the monthly opening-range lows at the objective 2025 yearly open near 2624. Key support rests with the 38.2% retracement of the May rally / October low at 2594-2603 – a break / close below this threshold would threaten a larger correction in gold with such a scenario exposing the November low-day close (LDC) at 2565 and the 50% retracement /August high at 2532/34 (both areas of interest for possible downside exhaustion IF reached).
A topside breakout of this formation keeps the focus on the 10/23 outside reversal close at 2715- a close above this level is ultimately needed to mark uptrend resumption towards the record HDC at 2744 and the record high / close / 2.618% extension at 2787-2804.
Bottom line: The gold recovery is approaching consolidation resistance just higher with the monthly opening-range taking shape just below. The immediate focus is on a breakout of the 2594-2680 range. From a trading standpoint, loses should be limited to the November trendline IF price is heading higher on this stretch with a close above 2715 needed to mark uptrend resumption.
Keep in mind we get the release of key US employment data this week with Non-Farm Payrolls on tap Friday. Stay nimble into the releases and watch the weekly closes for guidance. Review my latest Gold Weekly Technical Forecast for a closer look at the longer-term look at the XAU/USD trade levels.
Key Economic Data Releases
Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.
Active Short-term Technical Charts
- US Dollar Short-term Outlook: USD Bulls Rest After Five-Week Run
- Australian Dollar Short-term Outlook: AUD/USD Bears Lay in Wait
- Euro Short-term Outlook: EUR/USD December Range Unfazed by ECB
- Canadian Dollar Short-term Outlook: USD/CAD Bulls Brace for BoC
- Japanese Yen Short-term Outlook: USD/JPY Recovery at Trend Resistance
- Swiss Franc Short-term Outlook: USD/CHF Charge Uptrend Support
- British Pound Short-term Outlook: GBP/USD Bulls Emerge
--- Written by Michael Boutros, Sr Technical Strategist with FOREX.com
Follow Michael on X @MBForex
StoneX Financial Ltd (trading as "FOREX.com") is an execution-only service provider. This material, whether or not it states any opinions, is for general information purposes only and it does not take into account your personal circumstances or objectives. This material has been prepared using the thoughts and opinions of the author and these may change. However, FOREX.com does not plan to provide further updates to any material once published and it is not under any obligation to keep this material up to date.
This material is short term in nature and may only relate to facts and circumstances existing at a specific time or day. Nothing in this material is (or should be considered to be) financial, investment, legal, tax or other advice and no reliance should be placed on it. No opinion given in this material constitutes a recommendation by FOREX.com or the author that any particular investment, security, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.
The material has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Although FOREX.com is not specifically prevented from dealing before providing this material, FOREX.com does not seek to take advantage of the material prior to its dissemination. This material is not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person in any country or jurisdiction where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation. For further details see our full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 74% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. CFD and Forex Trading are leveraged products and your capital is at risk. They may not be suitable for everyone. Please ensure you fully understand the risks involved by reading our full risk warning.
FOREX.com is a trading name of StoneX Financial Ltd. StoneX Financial Ltd is a company incorporated in England and Wales with UK Companies House number 05616586 and with its registered office at 1st Floor, Moor House, 120 London Wall, London, EC2Y 5ET. StoneX Financial Ltd is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority in the UK, with FCA Register Number: 446717.
FOREX.com is a trademark of StoneX Financial Ltd. This website uses cookies to provide you with the very best experience and to know you better. By visiting our website with your browser set to allow cookies, you consent to our use of cookies as described in our Privacy Policy. FOREX.com products and services are not intended for Belgium residents.
© FOREX.COM 2025