Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD Tempers Trump Sell-off

Gold Technical Forecast: XAU/USD Weekly Trade Levels

Gold prices rebound off uptrend support- December opening-range in focus
XAU/USD threat remains for larger correction with broader uptrend
Resistance 2736 (key), 2804, 2900– Support 2607, 2532, 2450/82 (key)

Gold prices are virtually unchanged since the start of the week with XAU/USD trading just above multi-year slope support. The focus now shifts to the December opening-range with the broader uptrend still vulnerable to a deeper correction while below the record high-close. Battle lines drawn on the XAU/USD weekly technical chart.

Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this gold setup and more. Join live on Monday’s at 8:30am EST.

Gold Price Chart – XAU/USD Weekly

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; XAU/USD on TradingView

Technical Outlook: In last month’s Gold Weekly Price Forecast we noted that the gold sell-off was, “testing initial trend support at the median-line- risk for near-term price inflection here.” XAU/USD surged nearly 7.3% off those lows before exhausting into the close of the month. A decline of nearly 4.3% rebounded off the 61.8% retracement of the November rally at 2607 last week with price holding a tight range (virtually unchanged) into the weekly / monthly open.

Weekly resistance is eyed with the record high-week close (HWC) at 2736- a breach / close above this threshold is needed to mark uptrend resumption towards subsequent resistance objectives at 2.618% extension of the 2022 range breakout at 2804 and 2900 / the upper parallel.

Support remains at 2607 with a break / close below the median-line needed to suggest a more significant correction is underway. Subsequent support objectives rests with the August high at 2532 and 2450/82- a region defined by the April high and the 38.2% retracement of the 2024 yearly range. Losses should be limited to this zone for the 2022 uptrend to remain viable with a close below the 52-week moving average (currently ~2361) ultimately needed to suggest a larger trend reversal is underway / put the bears in control.

Bottom line: Gold is trading just above multi-year uptrend support into the start of the month and while the broader outlook remains constructive, the advance may be vulnerable to a larger correction within the broader uptrend. From a trading standpoint the immediate focus is on a breakout of the 2607-2736 range for guidance.

Keep in mind that we are in in the early throws of the December opening-range with US non-farm payrolls on tap Friday. Stay nimble into the release and watch the weekly close for guidance here. Review my latest Gold Short-term Outlook for a closer look at the near-term XAU/USD technical trade levels.

Key US Economic Data Releases

Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.

Active Weekly Technical Charts

--- Written by Michael Boutros, Sr Technical Strategist with FOREX.com

Follow Michael on X @MBForex

StoneX Financial Ltd (trading as "FOREX.com") is an execution-only service provider. This material, whether or not it states any opinions, is for general information purposes only and it does not take into account your personal circumstances or objectives. This material has been prepared using the thoughts and opinions of the author and these may change. However, FOREX.com does not plan to provide further updates to any material once published and it is not under any obligation to keep this material up to date.

This material is short term in nature and may only relate to facts and circumstances existing at a specific time or day. Nothing in this material is (or should be considered to be) financial, investment, legal, tax or other advice and no reliance should be placed on it. No opinion given in this material constitutes a recommendation by FOREX.com or the author that any particular investment, security, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.

The material has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Although FOREX.com is not specifically prevented from dealing before providing this material, FOREX.com does not seek to take advantage of the material prior to its dissemination. This material is not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person in any country or jurisdiction where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation. For further details see our full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.

CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 74% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. CFD and Forex Trading are leveraged products and your capital is at risk. They may not be suitable for everyone. Please ensure you fully understand the risks involved by reading our full risk warning.

FOREX.com is a trading name of StoneX Financial Ltd. StoneX Financial Ltd is a company incorporated in England and Wales with UK Companies House number 05616586 and with its registered office at 1st Floor, Moor House, 120 London Wall, London, EC2Y 5ET. StoneX Financial Ltd is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority in the UK, with FCA Register Number: 446717.

FOREX.com is a trademark of StoneX Financial Ltd. This website uses cookies to provide you with the very best experience and to know you better. By visiting our website with your browser set to allow cookies, you consent to our use of cookies as described in our Privacy Policy. FOREX.com products and services are not intended for Belgium residents.