CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 74% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Open Account
☰
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 74% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Open Account
✖

GBPUSD What doesnt kill you makes you stronger

Article By: ,  Financial Analyst
April 23, 2019 7:05 AM

What doesn't kill you makes you stronger, is what some bullish pound speculators might be thinking right now. When Brexit-related uncertainty was at its peak towards the end of last year and in early parts of 2019, the GBP/USD and other pound crosses fell sharply across the board. Yet, since the turn of the year, the GBP/USD has actually been pushing higher despite the bears throwing the kitchen sink at the beleaguered currency. With the worst-case scenario, which is a no-deal Brexit all but ruled out, anything else should be good news for the pound.

For this reason, I can’t see why the GBP/USD should create a new low for the year sub 1.2440. If anything, I am expecting the exchange rate to appreciate going forward after its recent pullback from the 1.3380 peak, as speculators price out the prospects of a messy exit from the EU. In fact, according the latest positioning data from the CFTC, the GBP has flipped to net long for the first time since June 2018, as per my colleague Matt Simpson’s article HERE.

This is potentially good news and if we see financial speculators further expand their bullish bets on sterling, then we may see the GBP/USD start to move decidedly north of the pivotal 1.30 area over the coming weeks. Indeed, there’s plenty of time from now until the new “Halloween” Brexit deadline of 31st October for the GBP/USD to move around in its existing wide range, with the next move likely to be higher – in our view –  for the reasons stated above.

The key risk to this outlook is if the dollar were to sharply extend its rally, which we can’t rule out given that the Dollar Index is sitting right below the key 97.70 resistance level ahead of the publication of US GDP on Friday.

Source: TradingView and FOREX.com.

StoneX Financial Ltd (trading as "FOREX.com") is an execution-only service provider. This material, whether or not it states any opinions, is for general information purposes only and it does not take into account your personal circumstances or objectives. This material has been prepared using the thoughts and opinions of the author and these may change. However, FOREX.com does not plan to provide further updates to any material once published and it is not under any obligation to keep this material up to date.


This material is short term in nature and may only relate to facts and circumstances existing at a specific time or day. Nothing in this material is (or should be considered to be) financial, investment, legal, tax or other advice and no reliance should be placed on it. No opinion given in this material constitutes a recommendation by FOREX.com or the author that any particular investment, security, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.


The material has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Although FOREX.com is not specifically prevented from dealing before providing this material, FOREX.com does not seek to take advantage of the material prior to its dissemination. This material is not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person in any country or jurisdiction where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation. For further details see our full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.


CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 74% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. CFD and Forex Trading are leveraged products and your capital is at risk. They may not be suitable for everyone. Please ensure you fully understand the risks involved by reading our full risk warning.

FOREX.com is a trading name of StoneX Financial Ltd. StoneX Financial Ltd is a company incorporated in England and Wales with UK Companies House number 05616586 and with its registered office at 1st Floor, Moor House, 120 London Wall, London, EC2Y 5ET. StoneX Financial Ltd is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority in the UK, with FCA Register Number: 446717.

FOREX.com is a trademark of StoneX Financial Ltd. This website uses cookies to provide you with the very best experience and to know you better. By visiting our website with your browser set to allow cookies, you consent to our use of cookies as described in our Privacy Policy. FOREX.com products and services are not intended for Belgium residents.

© FOREX.COM 2025