Forex Market

Today's growth figures are unlikely to force the RBA into any easing action, but it has been enough to weigh on the Australian dollar and ASX 200. And this could allow EUR/AUD to continue higher after a 4-day retracement.

Having fallen over 5% from the November high already, the two days of indecision around support alongside a bullish divergence suggest USD/JPY could be vulnerable to some bullish mean reversion.

The EUR/JPY is our featured technical chart, for not only a technical breakdown is looking increasingly likely, but the macro back backdrop makes for a bearish fundamental backdrop. In short, the euro is undermined because of Europe’s persistent economic and political challenges, while a potential rate hike from the Bank of Japan magnifies the yen's appeal. Against this backdrop, our short-term EUR/JPY forecast is bearish.

Risk sentiment and rate differentials are dictating directional risks for USD/NOK and NOK/JPY. With weakening ties to US rates and oil, and carry trade flows dominating NOK/JPY, we look at setups as we head toward year-end.

While it is well documented that the USD tends to suffer in December, the dynamics of Trump at the helm alongside another important FOMC meeting could give seasonality a run for its money. But regardless of which way the dollar travels this month, there is a clear intra-month pattern that is worth factoring in to the equation.

I thought we might make it a bit closer to 2025 before the selloff an anticipated selloff on AUD/JPY unfolded. But we're reminded that Trump can make or break sentiment on a whim with his eye now on BRICS countries, which saw AUD/USD fall alongside the FX barometer of risk on Monday.

EUR/USD and AUD/USD are heading into their strongest month, hinting at rally potential after November drops.

USD/JPY is tumbling, breaking through its 200-day moving average after Tokyo’s inflation data shocked to the upside. With US Treasury yields losing steam and thin markets amplifying moves, traders are eyeing a deeper downside flush. Could the yen’s resurgence have more room to run?

French political drama is generating noise again, but don’t be fooled; it's the relative outlook for growth and inflation either side of the Atlantic that’s really moving EUR/USD. With the ECB ready to step in, perpetual French chaos is just a sideshow for the euro.

NZD/USD is gaining momentum, with US rates diminishing as the dominant driver. With trade war risks back on the radar, the Kiwi’s trajectory could hinge on global sentiment. Can it weather the turbulence?

After USD/JPY’s dramatic plunge, the focus shifts to what’s next. Is this just the beginning of further downside, or could a rally toward the 200-day moving average provide fresh opportunities for shorts? Here's what signals from US Treasuries reveal on near-term directional risks.

The EUR/JPY outlook is increasingly tuning bearish, but it must continue holding below the 160.00 handle to keep the bears happy. I reckon the pair is heading down to 155.00 in the coming days.

The RBNZ took the safe option in delivering a 50bps cut, but hawkish signals have traders buzzing. Can NZD/USD sustain its breakout momentum, or will the US dollar reclaim control?

As AUD/JPY is a classic barometer of risk, we should take note that all is not looking well around current levels. And if AUD/JPY tanks, it’s likely to be followed by risk in general.

USD/JPY bulls are on the back foot as US bond yields retreat, triggering a key technical break. With Scott Bessent’s bold fiscal plan easing fears and Fed rate cut bets fading, the pair now skews firmly to the downside.

The consensus is 50bp, market pricing leans towards 75bp. Whatever the RBNZ decide to do today, it comes down to whether they will signal further cuts, as to whether NZD/USD continues to depreciate or bounce on a "sell the rumour, buy the fact" reaction.