US Dollar Selling and EURUSD Buying into Month End
There is usually some volatility at month end as big money needs to “get things done” , often at any cost. If traders can determine these moves, in real time, as the London fix approaches at the end of each month, there could be opportunities to take advantage of these large flows. These big money players include Central Banks, pension funds, and mutual funds that need to rebalance their books. They need to buy and sell different market instruments so that they have the correction proportion of assets on their books based on each individual’s mandate.
Today, the last day in April, was no different as the US Dollar was sold into the London fix at 4:00pm BST. The US Dollar actually began selling off at the US stock market opening and accelerated as time moved closer to the fix. Price moved from 99.72 down to 98.81.
Source: Tradingview, FOREX.com
On a daily timeframe, the move pushed the US Dollar Index down through the upward sloping trendline of the symmetrical triangle. Price held next support level at the 50% retracement of the lows on March 6th to the highs on March 20th near 98.82.
Source: Tradingview, FOREX.com
After the ECB statement today, EUR/USD initially moved lower as Christine LaGarde signaled doom and gloom for the Eurozone economy this year. However, as the DXY sold off, EUR/USD went bid. Price moved from 1.0833 to 1.0972!
Source: Tradingview, FOREX.com
On a daily timeframe, the move pushed EUR/USD above the downward sloping trendline it had been holding since March 27th and through the 50% retracement level from the highs on March 27th to the lows on April 24th. There is horizontal resistance and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level from the same time period near 1.0980. Above there price can run to previous highs at 1.1138. First support is at the recent trendline near 1.0850 and then recent lows near 1.0800.
Source: Tradingview, FOREX.com
On a short term 60-minute timeframe, the move higher in the EUR/USD broke above the neckline of an inverse head and shoulders pattern. The target for the pattern is near 1.1050.
Source: Tradingview, FOREX.com
If one can recognize that there are some peculiar moves into the London fix on the last day of the month, there may be an opportunity to take advantage of it. This is especially true if price crosses key trendlines or breaks out of a pattern, as the DXY and EUR/USD did today!
The information on this web site is not targeted at the general public of any particular country. It is not intended for distribution to residents in any country where such distribution or use would contravene any local law or regulatory requirement. The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on our analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.
Futures, Options on Futures, Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Losses can exceed your deposits. Increasing leverage increases risk. Spot Gold and Silver contracts are not subject to regulation under the U.S. Commodity Exchange Act. Contracts for Difference (CFDs) are not available for US residents. Before deciding to trade forex, commodity futures, or digital assets, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained herein is intended as general information about the subject matter covered and is provided with the understanding that we do not provide any investment, legal, or tax advice. You should consult with appropriate counsel or other advisors on all investment, legal, or tax matters. References to FOREX.com or GAIN Capital refer to StoneX Group Inc. and its subsidiaries. Please read Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options.
Please note that foreign exchange and other leveraged trading involves significant risk of loss. It is not suitable for all investors and you should make sure you understand the risks involved, seeking independent advice if necessary.
Contracts for Difference (CFDs) are not available to US residents.
FOREX.com is a trading name of GAIN Capital - FOREX.com Canada Limited, 30 Independence Blvd, Suite 300 (3rd floor), Warren, NJ 07059, USA is a member of the Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization and Member of the Canadian Investor Protection Fund. GAIN Capital – FOREX.com Canada Limited is a wholly-owned subsidiary of Stonex Group Inc.
Complaints are taken very seriously at FOREX.com. You can view our complaints procedure here.
© FOREX.COM 2025