Trade Balance

Today’s economic calendar is light on traditional economic data, but heavy on high-stakes testimonies with President Trump’s former attorney Michael Cohen, US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer, and Fed Chair Jerome Powell all getting grilled by lawmakers, simultaneously. Michael Cohen’s testimony could have long-term legal ramifications for the President, but comments from the other two policymakers have more near-term significance for traders.

For once, the weekend brought little in the way market-moving economic developments, and with Australian traders out on holiday, the FX market has seen a quiet start to the week.

As you’ve no doubt heard by now, US President Trump and Chinese President Xi were able to reach a ceasefire agreement at the G20 summit in Argentina over the weekend.

Yesterday, we noted that FIFA trumped Forex in terms of excitement, but today’s been all about the markets. As my colleague Ken Odeluga noted in his prescient post yesterday morning, trade issues are front and center for investors in this week’s trade.

The dollar remains the currency market’s standout performer for the second straight day, gaining value against each of its major rivals after this morning’s as-expected New Home Sales report. Despite consistent strength in the greenback each day this week, the world’s reserve currency is still down from its pre-Fed levels of last week, so it’s difficult to draw any conclusions about the sustainability of the current move, especially due to the lower liquidity pre-holiday conditions.

It’s said that the night is blackest just before the dawn, and investors clearly had a very dim short-term outlook on China’s economy earlier this week. After some aggressive action from the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) and better-than-expected trade data, there is a glimmer of hope on the horizon, but only time will tell if it’s a false dawn or a real sign that things are getting better in the world’s second-largest economy.