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USD/CHF Oscillating Around 0.9700 Ahead of Next Week’s SNB Meeting
Political headlines and trade fears are dominating the headlines in today’s North American session, leading to a slight risk-off tone despite a positive open for risk assets. As a result, we’ve seen the US dollar, Japanese yen, and Swiss franc ascend to become the strongest major currencies on the day after bringing up the rear through the first four days of the trading week.
USD/CHF: Potential bearish reversal forming at 14-month highs
If you were just to look at the where the major currencies are trading relative to yesterday’s US close, you’d think it’s been a pretty quiet day; after all, none of the majors are trading more than 0.3% from the day’s open as of writing.
End in sight for era of extraordinary loose central bank policy
The tide is turning: central banks are finally in the process of ending their extraordinary loose monetary policy stances that had been originally established in response to the global financial crisis and the economic slump that ensued. The US Federal Reserve started the process of normalising its policy, raising interest raised rates three times now.
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EUR/CHF: Forgotten FX pair may come back to life
The EUR/CHF has been a forgotten currency pair, but is the worst days behind it now? The franc has been stubbornly strong against the euro. But with the ECB’s next policy move likely to be to reduce accommodation, the rate differential favours a recovery in EUR/CHF. Trouble is, there’s significant political risks facing the Eurozone in the coming months and that may keep a lid on the euro and support the perceived safe-haven Swiss franc. Nevertheless, the Swiss National Bank stands ready to intervene if the franc appreciates further.
USD/CHF coiling for a big breakout?
The daily chart of the USD/CHF continues to show constructive technical signals as far as the bullish case is concerned. Obviously the biggest risk to any technical outlook is sudden changes in sentiment because of some fundamental stimuli, such as the ongoing Brexit risks and Friday’s US jobs report among others. But with the SNB actively intervening in the FX markets (as indicated by the ballooning foreign currency reserves, which rose a further 7 billion francs in June to 609 billion) and the Fed still being the only major central bank looking to raise rather than cut interest rates (at some point), the fundamental outlook for the Swissy continues to remain bullish. It looks like all the USD/CHF needs now is just a push to trigger potential momentum buying interest and this trigger could come in the form of a solid NFP report on Friday.
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