Seasonal analysis

What are the odds of a Deecember melt up in the S&P 500?

While it is well documented that the USD tends to suffer in December, the dynamics of Trump at the helm alongside another important FOMC meeting could give seasonality a run for its money. But regardless of which way the dollar travels this month, there is a clear intra-month pattern that is worth factoring in to the equation.

EUR/USD and AUD/USD are heading into their strongest month, hinting at rally potential after November drops.

AUD/USD has done a poor job of tracking its seasonality overall this year so far. And given it’s taking its directional cue from China while any pullback on the USD may be limited, I'm not hanging my hat on a particularly strong December for AUD/USD.

Q4 tends to be bullish for gold, and November one of its most bullish months of the year. Yet seasonality has not met bullish plans these past few weeks, and it may not as we enter December either.