Nasdaq 100 Forecast: QQQ rises with Nvidia earnings & Fed speak in focus

US futures

Dow future -0.12% at 43366

S&P futures 0.07% at 5874

Nasdaq futures 0.3% at 20450

In Europe

FTSE 0.1% at 8073

Dax  -0.39% at 19142

• US stocks steady after losses last week
• Attention turns to Nvidia earnings of Wednesday, a test for the AI trade
• Fed speakers are in focus amid a quiet economic calendar
• Tesla drives higher on self driving optimism
• Oil inches higher, but gains could be limited

US stocks are mixed, Tesla jumps

U.S. stocks are pointing to a mixed start Monday after losses in the previous week and as investors brace themselves for earnings from AI giant Nvidia on Wednesday.

All three indices fell sharply last week, with the Nasdaq 100 dropping over 3% in its worst weekly performance since September. Stocks fell last week as optimism following Trump's decisive presidential win waned and attention turned to his inflationary policies' impact on the Fed’s outlook.

Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell warned that the Fed was in no rush to cut rates, and the market reassessed the likelihood of a December rate reduction, falling to 60% from 80%. Today, the US economic calendar is quiet; however, several Fed speakers could provide further clues about the Fed's outlook for interest rates.

The economic calendar is also quiet across the week, with PMI data due on Friday. However, earnings from some key players in the retail sector, such as Walmart and Target, could provide clues about the health of the US consumer.

Nvidia results on Wednesday will also be key for investors to assess whether optimism surrounding AI, which is responsible for much of the market's texture and rally this year, can be sustained.

Corporate news

Tesla is rising after reports that Trump wants to establish a federal framework for self-driving vehicles, making it a top priority for the Department of Transportation. The EV maker has traded sharply higher following Trump's election victory. Musk was a vocal supporter of Trump across the campaign.

Nvidia is set to open lower on reports of overheating issues with its Blackwell chip. The update comes ahead of the chipmaker's Q3 earnings on Wednesday.

Spirit Airlines has filed for bankruptcy protection. The no-frills airline struggled in the US after a long run of quarterly losses and failed merger attempts. It has reached a deal with bondholders.

CVS is rising after the pharmacy chain announced an agreement with Glenview Capital Management to add new members to its board.

Nasdaq 100 forecast – technical analysis.

After running into resistance at 21,232, the Nasdaq 100 rebounded lower before testing support at the multi-month rising trendline at 20,300. The RSI is neutral. Buyers will look to recover back above 21,000 to 21,232 and fresh all-time highs. Sellers will look to take out the rising trendline support to bring 20k into play. A fall below here creates a lower low.

FX markets – USD falls, EUR/USD rises

The USD is holding steady below its yearly high, which reached the end of last week. The dollar was boosted by hotter inflation and hawkish Fed commentary, suggesting the Fed is in no rush to cut rates soon.

EUR/USD is holding steady as investors await a speech by ECB president Christine Lagarde. The market will watch for further clues about what to expect from the central bank and its meeting in December. The market is expecting another rate cut from the ECB; some investors consider a 50-basis-point cut may be on the cards. Eurozone inflation data and PMI data could drive the pair this week.

GBP/USD is unchanged after falling sharply last week on USD strength and after weaker UK data. UK GDP stalled in the third quarter, and unemployment unexpectedly rose. The UK economic calendar is quiet today, but attention is starting to turn to next Wednesday's inflation report.

Oil rises modestly, but gains could be limited

Oil prices are inching higher after losses in the previous week as the market weighs up escalating tensions between Russia and Ukraine. There will be an expected supply surplus next year and concerns over demand in China.

The war between Russia and Ukraine ramped up further this weekend. While tensions haven't impacted Russian oil exports, this could quickly change should Ukraine target Russian oil infrastructure.

Still, the International Energy Association reports that those worries are being offset by expectations of a supply surplus in 2025. The group expects a surplus of around 1,000,000 barrels per day even if OPEC+ maintains its supply cuts.

Also limiting the upside are concerns over the demand outlook in China, the world's second-largest oil consumer. Mixed data last week raised concerns over the outlook for China despite recent stimulus measures.

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