Nasdaq 100 Forecast: QQQ rises ahead of Fed Chair Powell's speech

US futures

Dow future 0.44% at 44,900

S&P futures 0.33% at 6067

Nasdaq futures 0.74% at 21381

In Europe

FTSE -0.30% at 8343

Dax  0.89% at 20213

• US stocks rise to record highs
• US ADP payrolls fall by more than expected
• US ISM services PMI, factory orders and Powell in focus
• Oil rises ahead of tomorrow’s OPEC+ meeting

Stocks rise with data drop in focus

U.S. stocks are pushing higher, with the NASDAQ 100 and the S&P 500 adding to yesterday’s record-high close ahead of comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell.

ADP private payrolls came in weaker than expected, falling to 146,000 from 184,000 in November, below the 150,000 that was forecast. The data comes ahead of US nonfarm payroll figures later in the week. After stronger-than-expected JOLTS job openings yesterday, which rose to 7.74 million, while layoffs were their lowest level in a year and a half.

Still, recent Fed speakers have confirmed that they're leaning towards a 25 basis point rate cut in December. They remain confident that inflation is cooling towards the Fed's 2% target while the labour market remains solid.

Attention is turning to Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, who may give further clues into the Fed's outlook for interest rates. The market is currently pricing in a 75% probability of a rate cut in December, and then the Fed is expected to cut interest rates at a pace of one per quarter across 2025.

US ISM services PMI and factory orders are also due this afternoon.

Corporate news

Salesforce soared almost 13% after the cloud software company beat revenue forecasts and raised the lower end of its annual revenue guidance.

Dollar Tree is set to open 5% higher after the discount retailer posted Q3 earnings and revenue above forecasts, boosted by strong same-sales stores.

Footlocker is down 16% after cutting its annual earnings and sales forecasts as Q3 results disappointed owing to softer consumer spending.

October is set to open 14% higher after the digital identity verification firms turned a profit in Q3 after losses in the previous year.

Nasdaq 100 forecast – technical analysis.

The Nasdaq 100 recovered from the 20,300 mid-November low, rising above 21,000 to create a fresh higher high. Buyers supported by the RSI above 50 will look to keep grinding higher to 21,500 and above 21,600, the rising trendline resistance. On the downside, immediate support is at 21,300, opening the door to 20,700. A break below 20,300 is needed to create a lower low.

FX markets – USD falls, EUR/USD rises

The USD is rising, boosted by geopolitical risks in France and South Korea and despite a weaker-than-expected ADP employment report. Attention will now turn to Fed Chair Powell's speech for further clues about the direction of monetary policy.

EUR/USD is falling as the French political drama continues, with PM Michel Barnier's government on the brink of collapse. The PM faces a vote of no confidence today after pushing through budget measures without parliamentary approval. The political uncertainty comes as PMI figures for the region showed business activity contracted in November, falling to a 10-month low as stagflation concerns loom.

GBP/USD is falling lower amid a stronger U.S. dollar. However, losses could be limited thanks to an upward GDP revision from the OECD. The OECD now forecasts the UK economic growth of 1.7% in 2025. However, interest rates are also expected to fall more slowly following the budget on the back of higher spending.

Oil rises ahead of this week’s OPEC meeting.

Oil prices held steady after yesterday's strong gains as investors looked cautiously ahead to tomorrow's OPEC+ decision and amid heightened geopolitical tensions worldwide.

Israel warned yesterday that it would return to war with Hezbollah if the ceasefire agreement collapses, highlighting the fragility of the deal. Rising tensions in the Middle East could elevate supply concerns, lifting oil prices.

Meanwhile OPEC+ is widely expected to extend its 2.2 million barrels per day voluntary production cuts into the first quarter of 2025. The oil cartel had been looking to phase out supply cuts throughout the next year; however, given expectations of supply surplus and weak demand from China, there appears to be little choice but to push back for now.

According to API data US crude oil inventories rose 1.2 million barrels last year week whilst gasoline stocks rose by 4.6 million barrels.

EIA figures are due later today or next week to show crude oil stockpiles declined by 700,000 barrels.