Gold Price Rebound Emerges Ahead of the 50-Day SMA
Gold Price Outlook: XAU/USD
The price of gold is on course to weaken for the second consecutive week after showing a limited reaction to the Federal Reserve rate-cut, but bullion may continue to track the positive slope in the 50-Day SMA ($2644) as it holds above the moving average.
Gold Price Rebound Emerges Ahead of the 50-Day SMA
Keep in mind, the recent drop in the price of gold pushed the Relative Strength Index (RSI) to its lowest level since June, and the oscillator may continue to show the bullish momentum abating should it steadily move towards oversold territory.
Join David Song for the Weekly Fundamental Market Outlook webinar. David provides a market overview and takes questions in real-time. Register Here
Nevertheless, bullion may attempt to retrace the decline following the US election as the Federal Reserve delivers a dovish rate-cut in November, and it seems as though the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will further unwind its restrictive policy as the central bank moves ‘toward a more neutral stance over time.’
In turn, the Fed may continue to prepare for US households and businesses for lower interest rates as Chairman Jerome Powell insists that ‘in the near term the election will have no effects on our policy decisions,’ and gold may continue to serve as an alternative to fiat-currencies amid the threat of a policy error.
With that said, the price of gold may continue to reflect a bullish trend as it appears to be bouncing ahead of the 50-Day SMA ($2644), but bullion may no longer tracks the positive slope in the moving average if it fails to retain the advance from the monthly low ($2644).
XAU/USD Price Chart – Daily
Chart Prepared by David Song, Strategist; XAU/USD on TradingView
- The price of gold may extend the decline from the start of the month as it struggles to trade back above the $2700 (23.6% Fibonacci extension) to $2730 (100% Fibonacci extension) region, with a breach below $2630 (78.6% Fibonacci extension) opening up the October low ($2603).
- Next area of interest comes in around $2590 (100% Fibonacci extension) but the price of gold may reestablish the bullish trend from earlier this year should it continue to track the positive slope in the 50-Day SMA ($2644).
- Need a close above the $2700 (23.6% Fibonacci extension) to $2730 (100% Fibonacci extension) region to bring $2760 (38.2% Fibonacci extension) on the radar, with a breach above the monthly high ($2762) raising the scope for a test of the yearly high ($2790).
Additional Market Outlooks
Monetary vs Fiscal Policy: Implications for FX Markets
USD/CAD Still Holds Below Monthly High Following Dovish Fed Rate Cut
GBP/USD Recovers Ahead of 200-Day SMA amid Hawkish BoE Rate Cut
US Dollar Forecast: USD/JPY Vulnerable to Looming Fed Rate Cut
--- Written by David Song, Senior Strategist
Follow on X at @DavidJSong
The information on this web site is not targeted at the general public of any particular country. It is not intended for distribution to residents in any country where such distribution or use would contravene any local law or regulatory requirement. The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on our analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.
Futures, Options on Futures, Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Losses can exceed your deposits. Increasing leverage increases risk. Spot Gold and Silver contracts are not subject to regulation under the U.S. Commodity Exchange Act. Contracts for Difference (CFDs) are not available for US residents. Before deciding to trade forex, commodity futures, or digital assets, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained herein is intended as general information about the subject matter covered and is provided with the understanding that we do not provide any investment, legal, or tax advice. You should consult with appropriate counsel or other advisors on all investment, legal, or tax matters. References to FOREX.com or GAIN Capital refer to StoneX Group Inc. and its subsidiaries. Please read Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options.
Please note that foreign exchange and other leveraged trading involves significant risk of loss. It is not suitable for all investors and you should make sure you understand the risks involved, seeking independent advice if necessary.
Contracts for Difference (CFDs) are not available to US residents.
FOREX.com is a trading name of GAIN Capital - FOREX.com Canada Limited, 30 Independence Blvd, Suite 300 (3rd floor), Warren, NJ 07059, USA is a member of the Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization and Member of the Canadian Investor Protection Fund. GAIN Capital – FOREX.com Canada Limited is a wholly-owned subsidiary of Stonex Group Inc.
Complaints are taken very seriously at FOREX.com. You can view our complaints procedure here.
© FOREX.COM 2025