Matt Simpson
Matt Simpson
Market Analyst
Expertise: FX Macro, Technical Analysis, Sentiment
Trading Style: Mean reversion/inflection points, the occasional trend
Experience:
• Over 10 years analysis and trading forex, indices, gold and oil, and worked for several brokers across the APAC region including Australia and Singapore
• Experienced in system design and testing, professional trade signals, trade coaching and education
• Regularly quoted in the financial media such as Reuters, Bloomberg, CNBC
• A certified financial technician (CFTe) and hold a diploma of the Society of Technical Analysts (MSTA)
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EUR/AUD turns higher, ASX 200 falters on sluggish Australian growth
Today's growth figures are unlikely to force the RBA into any easing action, but it has been enough to weigh on the Australian dollar and ASX 200. And this could allow EUR/AUD to continue higher after a 4-day retracement.
USD/JPY selloff loses steam around support, bounce incoming?
Having fallen over 5% from the November high already, the two days of indecision around support alongside a bullish divergence suggest USD/JPY could be vulnerable to some bullish mean reversion.
The US dollar, seasonality and what that could mean for December
While it is well documented that the USD tends to suffer in December, the dynamics of Trump at the helm alongside another important FOMC meeting could give seasonality a run for its money. But regardless of which way the dollar travels this month, there is a clear intra-month pattern that is worth factoring in to the equation.
AUD/JPY, AUD/USD drop like a tonne of BRICS
I thought we might make it a bit closer to 2025 before the selloff an anticipated selloff on AUD/JPY unfolded. But we're reminded that Trump can make or break sentiment on a whim with his eye now on BRICS countries, which saw AUD/USD fall alongside the FX barometer of risk on Monday.
Bullish bets on the yen continue to gain traction: COT report
We may have seen an important swing low on the yen looking at the change of speculative market positioning. And that could see a much deeper pullback on USD/JPY.
AUD/USD weekly outlook: Can seasonality save the Aussie?
AUD/USD has done a poor job of tracking its seasonality overall this year so far. And given it’s taking its directional cue from China while any pullback on the USD may be limited, I'm not hanging my hat on a particularly strong December for AUD/USD.
The stats are working against bitcoin bulls today
Bitcoin futures followed their seasonal tendency to rally on Thanksgiving Day. And pattern is to hold true today, it could be set for a down day as we veer into the weekend.
ASX hits record high in thin trade, but double top clouds the outlook
ASX 200 futures (SPI 200) were allowed to print a fresh record high on a daily-close basis. Yet 8500 remains a clear level of resistance, and one which prompted a potential bearish reversal pattern.
With Wall Street bucking its Thanksgiving trend, the ASX could struggle
Wall Street indices took the relatively rare step of ignoring its tendency to rally ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday, and price action suggests there could be deeper pullback. Which may not bode so well for ASX 200 bulls who may be sleeping behind their wheel around a record high.
2025 could be one heck of a ride if bearish AUD/JPY clues are correct
As AUD/JPY is a classic barometer of risk, we should take note that all is not looking well around current levels. And if AUD/JPY tanks, it’s likely to be followed by risk in general.
NZD/USD, AUD/NZD: RBNZ to mull dovish cut in face of tariffs, Trump 2.0
The consensus is 50bp, market pricing leans towards 75bp. Whatever the RBNZ decide to do today, it comes down to whether they will signal further cuts, as to whether NZD/USD continues to depreciate or bounce on a "sell the rumour, buy the fact" reaction.