AUD/USD Vulnerable amid Break Below November Opening Range

Australian Dollar Outlook: AUD/USD

AUD/USD breaks below the opening range for November to register a fresh monthly low (0.6480), but data prints coming out of Australia may curb the recent decline in the exchange rate as Australia’s Employment report is anticipated to show a further expansion in job growth.

AUD/USD Vulnerable amid Break Below November Opening Range

AUD/USD extends the decline from earlier this week despite the limited reaction to the US Consumer Price Index (CPI), and the exchange rate may continue to give back the rebound from the yearly low (0.6349) as it carves a series of lower highs and lows.

Australia Economic Calendar

Nevertheless, Australia is expected to add 25.0K jobs in October following the 64.1K expansion the month prior, while the Unemployment Rate is seen holding steady at 4.1% during the same period.

The ongoing expansion in employment may keep the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) on the sidelines as ‘sustainably returning inflation to target within a reasonable timeframe remains the Board’s highest priority,’ and the central bank may keep the cash rate at 4.35% at its last meeting for 2024 as ‘policy will need to be sufficiently restrictive until the Board is confident that inflation is moving sustainably towards the target range.’

With that said, a positive development may generate a bullish reaction in the Australian Dollar as it raises the RBA’s scope to retain the current policy, but a weaker-than-expected employment report may drag on the exchange rate as it puts pressure on the central bank to implement lower interest rates.

AUD/USD Price Chart – Daily

Chart Prepared by David Song, Strategist; AUD/USD on TradingView

• AUD/USD fails to hold within the opening range for November as it carves a series of lower highs and lows, with a close below the 0.6510 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement) to 0.6520 (23.6% Fibonacci retracement) zone raising the scope for a move towards the 0.6380 (78.6% Fibonacci retracement) to 0.6410 (50% Fibonacci extension) region.
• Next area of interest comes in around the yearly low (0.6349) but AUD/USD may attempt to retrace the decline from earlier this week as long as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) holds above oversold territory.
• Need a move back above the 0.6590 (38.2% Fibonacci extension) to 0.6600 (23.6% Fibonacci retracement) zone for AUD/USD to negate the bearish price series, with the next region of interest coming in around the monthly high (0.6688).

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--- Written by David Song, Senior Strategist

Follow on X at @DavidJSong