AUDUSD Bulls Could Target 2019 High at 07300 on Positive USChina Trade Headlines
US and Chinese trade negotiators kicked off another round of talks today after President Trump labeled last week’s discussions in Beijing “very productive.” Today and tomorrow feature lower-level officials to the table, with higher-level policymakers including US Trade Representative Lighthizer, Treasury Secretary Mnuchin, and Vice Prenier Liu He, coming to the table on Thursday and Friday.
The talks are picking up pace ahead of Trump’s March 1 deadline for more than doubling tariffs on $200B of Chinese imports, though the President has recently suggested that he could postpone that decision for another 60 days if he’s satisfied with this week’s progress.
Ultimately, it will almost certainly take another summit between Presidents Trump and Xi to reach an official deal, and the earliest they could realistically meet at this point would be the middle of March. That said, the extension of last week’s talks and ongoing dialogue this week has traders expecting the increase in tariffs will be delayed by the end of next week, with some sort of agreement following in either late March or early April. Of course, markets have been wrongfooted by political developments countless times in recent quarters, so traders will remain glued to their monitors for headlines out of Washington in the coming days.
For more on the US-China trade talks and their impact on the global stock / commodity markets, see my colleague Fawad Razaqzada’s report “Sentiment dominated by US-China trade and dovish central banks” from earlier today. When it comes to FX, AUD/USD is one of the best pairs to watch to gauge sentiment toward global trade. After a swooning on dovish RBA comments earlier this month, rates stabilized near previous support in the 0.7050 area.
The pair has rallied 100 pips since then, and with the MACD indicator about to cross back into a bullish configuration, the rally may have further to run on positive trade headlines. Adding to the bullish evidence, AUD/USD is showing a bullish engulfing candle so far today, signaling a shift toward bullish momentum. A formal delay to the tariff deadline and an official summit between the US and China could boost the pair toward the year-to-date highs around 0.7300 next.
Source: TradingView, FOREX.com
The information on this web site is not targeted at the general public of any particular country. It is not intended for distribution to residents in any country where such distribution or use would contravene any local law or regulatory requirement. The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on our analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.
Futures, Options on Futures, Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Losses can exceed your deposits. Increasing leverage increases risk. Spot Gold and Silver contracts are not subject to regulation under the U.S. Commodity Exchange Act. Contracts for Difference (CFDs) are not available for US residents. Before deciding to trade forex, commodity futures, or digital assets, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained herein is intended as general information about the subject matter covered and is provided with the understanding that we do not provide any investment, legal, or tax advice. You should consult with appropriate counsel or other advisors on all investment, legal, or tax matters. References to FOREX.com or GAIN Capital refer to StoneX Group Inc. and its subsidiaries. Please read Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options.
Please note that foreign exchange and other leveraged trading involves significant risk of loss. It is not suitable for all investors and you should make sure you understand the risks involved, seeking independent advice if necessary.
Contracts for Difference (CFDs) are not available to US residents.
FOREX.com is a trading name of GAIN Capital - FOREX.com Canada Limited, 30 Independence Blvd, Suite 300 (3rd floor), Warren, NJ 07059, USA is a member of the Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization and Member of the Canadian Investor Protection Fund. GAIN Capital – FOREX.com Canada Limited is a wholly-owned subsidiary of Stonex Group Inc.
Complaints are taken very seriously at FOREX.com. You can view our complaints procedure here.
© FOREX.COM 2025