Weaker Dollar's Boost to U.S. Earnings Fading
CHICAGO, July 26 (Reuters) - U.S. exporters hoping that a weak dollar might have helped boost sales during the second quarter might be feeling a bit disappointed as the dollar actually gained ground during the April-to-June period.
Measured on a trade-weighted basis against a broad range of currencies <=USD>, the dollar gained nearly 1.4 percent from April through June. Such gains may hurt U.S. exports, and if the strengthening continues as the U.S. economy improves, corporate earnings may start to suffer too.
"Don't expect that little pouch of gold," Glenn Stevens, managing director of GAIN Capital in Warren, New Jersey, said about the benefits of a weakening dollar. "The little angel dust that came last quarter didn't come this time."
Analysts were quick to note that dollar gains in the second quarter were slight and orderly -- not a big burden on corporate earnings.
During May, a month when exports rose 3.0 percent to hit a record $97.1 billion, the dollar notched its highest level on a trade-weighted basis since the previous November. But that level was still roughly 24 percent lower than peaks hit early in 2002, meaning that the negative effects of recent dollar gains on U.S. exports and earnings are relatively benign.
During mid-May of the second quarter, the dollar began declining, erasing the gains from earlier in the quarter and entering a relatively narrow range, in which it continues to trade about 1.4 percent higher for the entire quarter.
"There's no sense of urgency right now because currency market volatility is low," said John Rothfield, senior G10 currency strategist at Bank of America in San Francisco. "I would say it's a very dull period right now for hedging."
Some companies, in fact, reported a slight windfall thanks to currency fluctuations. Milwaukee-based Johnson Controls Inc. linked 3 percent of its sales growth in the most recent quarter to dollar-weakness against some currencies.
Harley-Davidson Inc. , which exports its American-made motorcycles to 60 countries, saw retail sales in Europe rise a scant 0.7 percent in the second quarter, compared with the year before, amid sluggish economic growth especially in Germany, its largest market in the region.
Harley saw little currency impact on its earnings because of its hedging strategies and because of its pricing model said James Ziemer, its chief financial officer.
"In general, we keep the pricing in the local currency, so there is not that up-and-down market relative to local currencies," he told investors on a recent conference call after the company reported its second-quarter earnings. (Additional reporting by Susan Kelly in Chicago)
